Simulasi Prediksi Penjualan Harian Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo pada Usaha Roti Skala UMKM

Authors

  • Rika Romatona Universitas Al – Azhar, Medan, Sumatera Utara
  • Sabikah Nur Naylah Universitas Al – Azhar, Medan, Sumatera Utara
  • Baitul Maharani Lubis Universitas Al – Azhar, Medan, Sumatera Utara
  • Tika Gajah Universitas Al – Azhar, Medan, Sumatera Utara
  • Yuhani Yuhani Universitas Al – Azhar, Medan, Sumatera Utara
  • Bidara Jelita Maha Universitas Al – Azhar, Medan, Sumatera Utara
  • Erza Arkan zharif Universitas Al-Azhar Medan, Sumatera Utara

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/jutin.v9i1.55835

Keywords:

Monte Carlo Simulation, Sales Prediction, Micro and Small Enterprises, Production Planning, Risk Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to apply the Monte Carlo simulation method to predict daily sales in a small-scale bakery enterprise to support risk-based production planning. The data used consisted of historical daily sales records analyzed to obtain statistical parameters, including mean and standard deviation. The results indicate that daily demand follows a normal distribution with an average of 151.73 units. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations was conducted to estimate the distribution of daily profit and associated risk levels. The findings show an average daily profit of IDR 199,029 with a 95% Value at Risk (VaR) of IDR 99,952. Furthermore, a positive correlation of 0.629 was identified between demand and profit. These results demonstrate that the Monte Carlo method is effective in modeling demand uncertainty and supporting more optimal and efficient production decision-making in micro and small enterprises.

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Published

2026-01-20

How to Cite

Romatona, R., Naylah, S. N., Lubis, B. M., Gajah, T., Yuhani, Y., Maha, B. J., & zharif, E. A. (2026). Simulasi Prediksi Penjualan Harian Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo pada Usaha Roti Skala UMKM. Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN), 9(1), 1148–1155. https://doi.org/10.31004/jutin.v9i1.55835

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): January

Section

Articles of Research

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Rika Romatona, Sabikah Nur Naylah, Baitul Maharani Lubis, Tika Gajah, Yuhani Yuhani, Bidara Jelita Maha, Erza Arkan zharif

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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