Implementasi Metode Moving Average dan Regresi Linier pada Peramalan Permintaan Mie di PT XYZ

Maria Angela Putri Setyawati; Firda Ainun Nisah

doi:10.31004/jutin.v7i2.26749

Authors

Maria Angela Putri Setyawati Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang
Firda Ainun Nisah Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/jutin.v7i2.26749

Keywords:

Peramalan, MSE, Tracking Signal, Moving Average, Regresi Linier

Abstract

PT XYZ is a company operating in the food industry. The company produces various kinds of food, such as biscuits, wafers, vermicelli and noodles. Noodle products are the most popular products, and there are often significant changes in each period. This causes fluctuations and results in uncontrolled inventory. PT XYZ can avoid this problem if it has a way to estimate noodle demand. Forecasting is a planning method for estimating products in the future. The moving average and linear regression methods are the methods used in this research. Based on the results of the calculations carried out, the method chosen is the linear regression method because the smallest Mean Squared Error (MSE) value is 620370900 and the tracking signal results from the linear regression method are close to zero. The results of forecasting the need for noodle products for the next period were 169,524 pcs. It is hoped that the results of this forecasting can help PT XYZ in carrying out production planning.

References

Ahmad F. (2020). Penentuan Metode Peramalan Pada Produksi Part New Granada Bowl ST di PT X. Jurnal Integrasi Sistem Industri, 7, 31-39.

Assauri, Sofyan. (2008). Manajemen Pemasaran. Jakarta: Raja Grafindo.

Astuti, Y., Novianti, B., Hidayat, T., & Maulina, D. (2019). Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Penjuaan Mainan Anak. Seminar Nasional Sistem Informasi Dan Teknik Informatika Sensitif, 255.

B. P. Candra, Kusrini, and H. A. Fatta. (2019). “Implementation of Trend Moment Method for Stock Prediction as Supporting Production. Transformtika, 1–8.

Gaspersz, V. (2004). Production Planning and Inventory Control. Jakarta: PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Gustriansyah, Nadia, & Sofiana. (2018). Komparasi Metode Peramalan Jumlah Permintaan Kamar Hotel. Jurnal Ilmiah Informatika, 95-100.

Handoko. (2015). Manajemen Sumber Daya Manusia (Cetakan Pertama ed.). Bandung: Pustaka Setia.

Heizer, J., dan Render, B. (2015). Manajemen Operasi: Manajemen Keberlangsungan dan Rantai Pasokan (Ketujuh buku satu ed.). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.

Hudaningsih, Utami, & Jabbar. (2020). Perbandingan Peramalan Penjualan Produk Aknilpt.Sunthi Sepurimengguanakan Metode Single Moving Averagedan Single Exponential Smooting. Jinteks, 2 , 15-22.

Nasution, A.H & Prasetyawan Y. (2008). Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi. Jakarta: Graha Ilmu.

Nasution, A.H. (2006). Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi. Jakarta: Guna Wijaya.

N. K. Sukerti. (2015). Peramalan Deret Waktu Menggunakan S-Curve dan Quadratic Trend Model. Proceedings Konferensi Nasional Sistem dan Informatika (KNS&I), 592-597.

Rival, Z., S. J. Saputra, W., & Sari, N. K. (2017). Aplikasi Peramalan Penjualan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier. Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dan Komunikasi, 41-45.

Sofyan, D.K. (2013). Perencanaan & Pengendalian Produksi. Lhoksemawe NAD: Graha Ilmu.

Sulardi, P., Hendro, T., & Umbara, F. R. (2017). Prediksi Kebutuhan Obat Menggunakan Regresi Linier. Prosiding SNATIF, 57-62.