ANALISA DAMPAK RISIKO KEEKONOMIAN DALAM PENGEMBANGAN PROYEK BIODIESEL DENGAN PENDEKATAN VALUE-AT-RISK
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31004/jkt.v5i2.27382Keywords:
Ketidakpastian Proyek, Pengembangan Proyek, Risiko Finansial, Value-at-RiskAbstract
Penelitian ini mengkaji potensi risiko finansial yang terkait dengan pengembangan proyek biodiesel, fokus pada studi kasus PT.DYZ di Tarjun (Kalimantan) dan Marunda (Jawa). Dalam penelitian ini, diterapkan pendekatan komprehensif dengan memanfaatkan teknik Value at Risk (VaR) dan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk mengevaluasi serta menganalisis ketidakpastian finansial yang mungkin timbul dalam proyek tersebut. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meningkatkan pemahaman mengenai dinamika keuangan proyek biodiesel dan memberikan wawasan untuk merancang strategi mitigasi risiko yang lebih baik. Melalui penerapan VaR, mengukur potensi kerugian yang mungkin dihadapi PT.DYZ dalam berbagai skenario. Selain itu, simulasi Monte Carlo digunakan untuk memodelkan performa keuangan proyek di bawah kondisi pasar yang beragam, memberikan sudut pandang dinamis terhadap eksposur risiko. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan informasi berharga bagi para pemangku kepentingan yang terlibat dalam pengembangan proyek biodiesel, memungkinkan pengambilan keputusan yang informasional dan perbaikan strategi manajemen risiko. Dari hasil pengukuran risiko menggunakan Value at Risk, didapatkan nilai tingkat kepercayaan 95% untuk biodiesel 1000 Tpd Marunda dengan nilai investasi awal $46 Mio, biodiesel 1000 Tpd Tarjun pada tingkat kepercayaan 95% dengan nilai investasi awal $49 Mio, sedangkan untuk biodiesel 1500 Tpd Tarjun, proyek dinyatakan layak pada tingkat kepercayaan 45% dengan nilai investasi awal $58 Mio.References
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